投资预言：黑石发布2016将出十大意外经济事件

　　1月初，黑石集团咨询合伙人业务副董事长拜伦· 维恩公布了他预测的2016年“意外”事件。

　　这是维恩第31次就新一年的经济、金融市场和政治“意外”事件发表看法。维恩所说的“意外”是指普通投资者认为可能性只有三分之一，但在他看来很有可能，或者说概率超过50%的事件。维恩从1986年开始发布这样的预期，当时他还是摩根士丹利的首席美国投资策略分析师。

　　1、希拉里· 克林顿在总统选举中获胜，击败了泰德· 科鲁兹。托她的福，民主在11月份控制了参议院。据说，共和总统候选人在关键问题上的极端态度是形成这种局面的原因。为两投票的人数均低于预期。

　　2、美国股市下行，原因是公司业绩低迷，利润率面临压力（工资上升而且缺乏定价能力）以及市盈率回落。全球局势不稳定是美股表现令人失望的另一个原因，这让投资者把大量现金留在手中。

　　3、2015年12月提高利率后，美联储在2016年仅加息一次，将短期利率上调0.25个百分点，而非像12月16日暗示的那样多次加息。经济疲软，公司业绩差以及新兴市场陷入困境是美联储采取谨慎策略的原因。2016年下半年，美联储将积极考虑让政策转向，甚至真的下调利率。2016年美国真实GDP增长率低于2%。

　　4、美国经济和股市的低迷表现促使海外投资者减持美股。大选竞争激烈造成政策面出现不确定因素，这让今后的前景更不明朗。随着美元贬值，欧元/美元汇率上涨至1.20。

　　5、中国经济几乎未能避免硬着陆，而且低迷的经济无法为年轻人创造充足的就业机会。不良贷款让中国银行(601988,股吧)业陷入困境。债务/GDP比例已达到250%。虽然零售和汽车销量表现良好而且工业产值上升，但经济增速降至5%以下。为促进出口，美元/人民币汇率被调整至7。

　　6、难民危机让欧盟出现分歧，欧盟解体再次成为人们谈论的话题。此番变化的背后原因是政界向极右的民族主义政策靠拢。没有形成任何决议，但欧元及其支持者的长期前景蒙上了一层阴影。

　　7、油价降至30多美元。全球经济增长缓慢是主要原因，来自伊朗的新增供应以及沙特不愿限制原油出口也起了一定作用。勘探开采规模萎缩可能会在某个时刻带动油价上行，但2016年不会出现供给紧张局面。

　　8、纽约和伦敦的高档住宅市场急剧滑坡。俄罗斯和中国买家的身影将从这两座城市消失。低油价也使中东买家态度谨慎。许多价格昂贵的公寓滞销，开发商因此面临财务压力。

　　9、美国经济和股市的低迷表现使美国10年期国债的收益率一直低于2.5%。投资者继续把债券视为避风港。

　　10、债务负担沉重以及需求低迷使全球经济增长率降至2%。全球经济表现未达到预期的原因是美国、中国及其他新兴市场的国民生产总值下降。

　　维恩还提出了一些未能入选前十的“意外”事件。他觉得人们不能掉以轻心，因为这些预期也“很有可能”成为现实。

　　11、由于加大了安保力度，和伊斯兰国或基地组织有关的恐怖分子未能在2016年对美国或欧洲发动造成百人及以上伤亡的大规模袭击。尽管如此，美国在2016年接收的中东难民数量仍非常有限。

　　12、日本摆脱了2015年下半年的经济衰退困境，原因是“安倍经济学”开始发挥作用。日本经济增长了1%，但日元进一步贬值，美元/日元汇率升至130。日经指数上涨到了22000点。

　　13、投资者对金融工程的态度变得强硬起来。他们意识到，股票回购、并购和避税也许能提高短期每股收益，但他们更愿意看到资本设备和研发投资提高长期增长率。股票估值水平受到打击。

　　14、2016年成为制药行业的“突破年”。一些治疗癌症、心脏病、糖尿病、帕金森症和失忆症的新药获准投入使用。开发这些突破性新药的成本及其疗效让那些批评药品定价的总统候选人态度软化。人们的预期寿命继续提高，进而给福利项目带来了财务压力。

　　15、大宗商品价格企稳，原因是农产品(000061,股吧)和工业原料制造商减产。新兴经济体走出衰退阴霾，其股市在2016年的好转让所有人都大为吃惊。（财富中文网）

　　译者：Charlie

　　校对：詹妮

　　Byron Wien, vice chairman of Blackstone Advisory Partners, today issued his list of Surprises for 2016.

　　This is the 31st year Wien has given his views on a number of economic, financial market and political surprises for the coming year. He defines a “surprise” as an event which the average investor would only assign a one out of three chance of taking place but which Byron believes is “probable,” having a better than 50% likelihood of happening. Wien started the tradition in 1986 when he was the Chief U.S. Investment Strategist at Morgan Stanley.

　　1、Riding on the coattails of Hillary Clinton, the winner of the presidential race against Ted Cruz, the Democrats gain control of the Senate in November. The extreme positions of the Republican presidential candidate on key issues are cited as factors contributing to this outcome. Turnout is below expectations for both political parties.

　　2、The U.S. equity market has a down year. Stocks suffer from weak earnings, margin pressure (higher wages and no pricing power) and a price/earnings ratio contraction. Investors keeping large cash balances because of global instability is another reason for the disappointing performance.

　　3、After the December rate increase, the Federal Reserve raises short-term interest rates by 25 basis points only once during 2016. This is in spite of having indicated on Dec. 16 that they would do more. A weak economy, poor corporate performance and struggling emerging markets are behind the cautious policy. Reversing course and actually reducing rates is actively considered later in the year. Real gross domestic product in the U.S. is below 2% for 2016.

　　4、The weak American economy and the soft equitymarket cause overseas investors to reduce their holdings of American stocks. An uncertain policy agenda as a result of a heated presidential campaign further confuses the outlook. The dollar declines to 1.20 against the euro.

　　5、China barely avoids a hard landing and its soft economy fails to produce enough new jobs to satisfy its young people. Chinese banks get in trouble because of non-performing loans. Debt-to-GDP is now 250%. Growth drops below 5% even though retail and auto sales are good and industrial production is up. The yuan is adjusted to seven against the dollar to stimulate exports.

　　6、The refugee crisis proves divisive for the European Union and breaking it up is again on the table. The political shift toward the nationalist policies of the extreme right is behind the change in mood. No decision is made, but the long-term outlook for the euro and its supporters darkens.

　　7、Oil languishes in the $30s. Slow growth around the world is the major factor, but additional production from Iran and the unwillingness of Saudi Arabia to limit shipments also play a role. Diminished exploration and development may result in higher prices at some point, but supply/demand strains do not appear in 2016.

　　8、High-end residential real estate in New York and London has a sharp downturn. Russian and Chinese buyers disappear from the market in both places. Low oil prices prompt caution among Middle East buyers. Many expensive condominiums remain unsold, putting developers under financial stress.

　　9、The soft U.S. economy and the weakness in the equity market keep the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury below 2.5%. Investors continue to show a preference for bonds as a safe haven.

　　10、Burdened by heavy debt and weak demand, global growth falls to 2%. Softer GNP in the United States as well as China and other emerging markets is behind the weaker than expected performance.

　　Wien also has a few more”also-ran” surprises to share, but he isn’t quite comfortable with the idea that they are “probable.”

　　11、As a result of enhanced security efforts, terrorist groups associated with ISIS and al Qaeda do NOT mount a major strike involving 100 or more casualties against targets in the U.S. or Europe in 2016. Even so, the U.S. accepts only a very limited number of asylum seekers from the Middle East during the year.

　　12、Japan pulls out of its 2015 second half recessionas Abenomics starts working. The economy grows 1%, but the yen weakens further to 130 to the dollar. The Nikkei rallies to 22,000.

　　13、Investors get tough on financial engineering. They realize that share buybacks, M&A, and inversions may give a boost to earnings per share in the short term, but they would rather see investment in capital equipment and research that would improve long-term growth. Multiples suffer.

　　14、2016 turns out to be the year of breakthroughs in pharmaceuticals. Several new drugs are approved to treat cancer, heart disease, diabetes, Parkinson’s and memory loss. The cost of developing the breakthrough drugs and their efficacy encourage the political candidates to soften their criticism of pill pricing. Life expectancy will continue to increase, resulting in financial pressure on entitlement programs.

　　15、Commodity prices stabilize as agricultural and industrial material manufacturers cut production. Emerging market economies come out of their recessions and their equity markets astonish everyone by becoming positive performers in 2016.

（责任编辑：陶海玲 HF003）